%0 Manuscript %D 9998 %T High Resolution Imagery Retrieval for Terrestrial Vegetation and Land Use Study %A N.M., Kovalevskaya %A K.A., Boenko %K pattern similarity, visual modeling, textural features %P 4 %X Study results of content-based retrieval from high resolution image data base (HRIDB) are presented. With the launch of each remote sensing satellite, the data is increasing exponentially both in content and usage. Multiple terabytes of HRIDB are being collected by majority of nations across the globe. It raises question how to retrieve, manage and make best use of the HRIDB information. The handling of terrestrial vegetation imageries is specific due more or less structured sketch of the patterns. The HRIDB contains different types of terrestrial vegetation and land use data and contributes towards the extraction of sketches of different patterns. The study explores the grey level spatial dependence and relationship of high resolution patterns. A query result is based upon meaningful combinations of visual features and interaction structure of homogeneous patterns. %0 Manuscript %D 9998 %T The Study of the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Ice Cover Using MODIS Data as a Factor of Phytoplankton Development in Lake Teletskoye %A N.M., Kovalevskaya %A E., Mitrofanova %A V.V., Kirillov %A K.A., Boenko %K MODIS data, phytoplankton, composition, spatial distribution, classification %P 4 %X The article presents the results of ice cover dynamics study for Lake Teletskoye (Russia) using of 250-meter 24-day Terra MODIS composites. Lake Teletskoye is the deepest lake in the south of West Siberia and the largest one in the Altai Mountains. The ice-covered period in mountain lakes located not high above mean sea level isn't prolonged due to milder climate in lake valleys. In Lake Teletskoye the ice-covered period usually lasts from the end of January till the beginning of April. Both temperature and spectral data were used for spatial analysis. Graphs of the ice cover dynamics have been derived for 3 presence-of-ice types. It is concluded that Terra MODIS imagery can be successfully used for the analysis of seasonal dynamics of ice cover, prediction of the development and abundance of algae under the ice. %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Environmental Management %D 2009 %T Assessing the value of information for water quality management in the North Sea %A Bouma, J A %A Woerd, H J %A Kuik, O J %K Value of information, Bayesian decision theory, Marine water quality, Water resource management, Stakeholder consultation, Satellite observation %P 1280-1288 %U http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6WJ7-4TG8P52-3/2/1a1d8504acc84476b95786e1fe689f11 %V 90 %X Global Earth Observation (GEO) is one of the most important sources of information for environmental resource management and disaster prevention. With budgets for GEO increasingly under pressure, it is becoming important to be able to quantify the returns to informational investments. For this, a clear analytical framework is lacking. By combining Bayesian decision theory with an empirical, stakeholder-oriented approach, this paper attempts to develop such a framework. The analysis focuses on the use of satellite observations for Dutch water quality management in the North Sea. Dutch water quality management currently relies on information from [`]in situ measurements but is considering extending and deepening its information base with satellite observations. To estimate returns to additional investments in satellite observation, we analyze the added value of an extended monitoring system for the management of eutrophication, potentially harmful algal blooms and suspended sediment and turbidity in the North Sea. First, we develop a model to make the potential contribution of information to welfare explicit. Second, we use this model to develop a questionnaire and interpret the results. The results indicate that the expected welfare impact of investing in satellite observation is positive, but that outcomes strongly depend on the accuracy of the information system and the range of informational benefits perceived. %Z Quantitative %9 Journal article %@ 0301-4797 %0 Journal Article %J Computers and Geosciences %D 2009 %T A Global Poverty Map Derived from Satellite Data %A Elvidge, C D %A Sutton, P C %A Ghosh, T %A Tuttle, B T %A Baugh, K E %A Bhaduri, B %A Bright, E %P 1652 - 1660 %V 35 %0 Journal Article %J Science %D 2009 %T Boom-and-Bust Development Patterns Across the Amazon Deforestation Frontier %A RODRIGUES, ASL %A EWERS, RM %A PARRY, L %A SOUSA, C %A VERISSIMO, A %A BALMFORD, A %P 1435 - 1437 %U http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/324/5933/1435 %V 324 %X The Brazilian Amazon is globally important for biodiversity, climate, and geochemical cycles, but is also among the least developed regions in Brazil. Economic development is often pursued through forest conversion for cattle ranching and agriculture, mediated by logging. However, on the basis of an assessment of 286 municipalities in different stages of deforestation, we found a boom-and-bust pattern in levels of human development across the deforestation frontier. Relative standards of living, literacy, and life expectancy increase as deforestation begins but then decline as the frontier evolves, so that pre- and postfrontier levels of human development are similarly low. New financial incentives and policies are creating opportunities for a more sustained development trajectory that is not based on the depletion of nature and ecosystem services. %0 Conference Proceedings %B International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment (ISRSE) %D 2009 %T Benefits of global earth observation for conservation planning in the case of European wetland biodiversity %A Jantke, K %A Schleupner, C %A Schneider, U A %C Stresa, Italy %K mathematical optimization model, mixed integer programming, systematic conservation planning, marginal costs, homogenous response units %X In this work, we apply a habitat allocation model that was developed using principles from systematic conservation planning. The model estimates area requirements and opportunity costs of habitat protection in the European Union simultaneously covering endangered wetland species and habitat types. The model can be solved for a range of biodiversity targets and conservation scenarios. In this study, we compare a non-GEOSS and a GEOSS-version of the habitat allocation model which have two major differences. First, there are no restrictions on the available habitat area per planning unit in the simple model version, whereas explicit modeled wetland habitat data with a resolution of 1 km² serve as input data in the second version. European wetland areas are distinguished between existing wetlands and areas suitable for restoration measures. It is differentiated between several wetland types as well. Second, we compare coarse country-specific land costs with land costs on a 5’ resolution. Homogenous response units (HRU) were used to delineate the detailed cost data. HRU are spatially delineated as zones of a grid having the same class of altitude, slope and soil. Our results show that conservation planning tools benefit significantly from the integration of high resolution habitat area data and spatially explicit cost data. They enable more reliable estimations on area requirements, habitat shares and opportunity costs of habitat protection. Implementing high-resolution habitat and cost data into the conservation planning tool results in overall lower costs of habitat protection. %0 Conference Proceedings %B International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment (ISRSE) %D 2009 %T Designing an Integrated Global Monitoring System for Drylands %A Verstraete, M M %A Smith, M S %A Scholes, R J %C Stresa, Italy %K Drylands, Global Observing Systems, DDP, UNCCD, GCOS, GEO BON, desertification, remote sensing %X Drylands occupy between 30 and 40% of the world's land surface, and host between 1 and 2 billion people, depending on how they are delimited. The development of drylands is hampered by a number of factors including severe natural and social environment constraints, but these regions also offer unique features and opportunities. The recent Drylands Development Paradigm (DDP) provides an intellectual context to re-think how humanity interacts with these harsh and fragile environments. Progress in understanding the key processes, in selecting appropriate policies and actions, as well as in evaluating their effectiveness has hitherto been hampered by the lack of a systematic, comprehensive, integrated observing system to document the state and evolution of drylands. This paper outlines some of the requirements for a Global Drylands Observing System (GDOS) and suggests how it could complement existing efforts in the fields of climate change and environmental degradation. %0 Journal Article %J International Journal of Spatial Data Infrastructures Research %D 2009 %T Evaluating the socio-economic impact of Geographic Information: A classification of the literature %A Genovese, Elisabetta %A Cotteret, Gilles %A Roche, Stéphane %A Caron, Claude %A , Robert Feick %U http://ijsdir.jrc.ec.europa.eu/index.php/ijsdir/article/view/120 %V 4 %X Geographic information (GI) is increasingly important to citizens, businesses and governments in modern societies. Considerable effort has been devoted to developing our understanding how GI affects the information management strategies and practices of individual organizations (GITA, 2006). However, there is an increasing awareness across public and private organizations that more attention has to be paid to assessing the broader economic and socio-economic impacts of GI technologies (European Commission, 2006; Craglia and Nowak, 2006). Given the investments that local, regional, national and supra-national organizations have made in GI and may consider for the future, it is imperative that the return on investments in GI be assessed across all scales. This is particularly relevant as GI is viewed increasingly as an infrastructural element for which investments and benefits must be justified and quantified (Grus, 2007). Although an increasing number of researchers are examining different approaches to evaluating specific GI applications, it is clear that the documentation of business cases and assessment strategies for GI investments is still incomplete (GITA, 2006). The key objective of this paper is to summarize and synthesize some of the current literature related to assessing the value of GI. This review, which was conducted under the auspices of the EcoGeo II project (http://ecogeo.scg.ulaval.ca), is based on an examination of 44 academic, business and government studies. A classification framework was constructed to compare these studies with reference to two key variables: topics and approaches. The studies we analyzed were developed within different public and private organizations and spanned international, national and regional scales. To make the study manageable, we focused particularly on the regional context represented by Canada’s province of Quebec. The results show that the topic of assessing the impacts of GI remains largely embryonic in nature. In particular, we identify the lack of a common vocabulary, no shared understanding concerning exactly which topics should be assessed, a lack of testing for any approaches suggested for evaluation, and often a dearth of concrete answers. %Z Articles under review %9 Journal Article %@ 1725-0463 %0 Journal Article %J Ecology and Society %D 2009 %T Ecosystem Services, Land-Cover Change, and Stakeholders: Finding a Sustainable Foothold for a Semiarid Biodiversity Hotspot %A Reyers, B %A O’Farrell, P J %A Cowling, R M %A Egoh, B N %A Le Maitre, D C %A Vlok, J H J %K carbon, grazing, human well-being, land degradation, ostriches, tourism, trade-offs, water %P 38 %U http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art38/ %V 14 %X Land-cover change has been identified as one of the most important drivers of change in ecosystems and their services. However, information on the consequences of land cover change for ecosystem services and human well-being at local scales is largely absent. Where information does exist, the traditional methods used to collate and communicate this information represent a significant obstacle to sustainable ecosystem management. Embedding science in a social process and solving problems together with stakeholders are necessary elements in ensuring that new knowledge results in desired actions, behavior changes, and decisions. We have attempted to address this identified information gap, as well as the way information is gathered, by quantifying the local-scale consequences of land-cover change for ecosystem services in the Little Karoo region, a semiarid biodiversity hotspot in South Africa. Our work is part of a stakeholder-engaged process that aims to answer questions inspired by the beneficiaries and managers of ecosystem services. We mapped and quantified the potential supply of, and changes in, five ecosystem services: production of forage, carbon storage, erosion control, water flow regulation, and tourism. Our results demonstrated substantial (20%–50%) declines across ecosystem services as a result of land-cover change in the Little Karoo. We linked these changes in land-cover to the political and land-use history of the region. We found that the natural features that deliver the Little Karoo’s ecosystem services, similar to other semiarid regions, are not being managed in a way that recognizes their constraints and vulnerabilities. There is a resulting decline in ecosystem services, leading to an increase in unemployment and vulnerability to shocks, and narrowing future options. We have proposed a way forward for the region that includes immediate action and restoration, mechanisms to fund this action, the development of future economic activity including tourism and carbon markets, and new ways that the science–stakeholder partnership can foster these changes. Although we acknowledge the radical shifts required, we have highlighted the opportunities provided by the resilience and adaptation potential of semiarid regions, their biodiversity, and their inhabitants. %0 Generic %D 2009 %T Earth Observations in Social Science Research for Management of Natural Resources and the Environment: Identifying the Contribution of the U.S. Land Remote Sensing (Landsat) Program %A Macauley, Molly %I Resources for the Future %K natural resources policy, environmental policy, Landsat, social science, environmental management %P 26 %U http://www.rff.org/Publications/Pages/PublicationDetails.aspx?PublicationID=20754 %X This paper surveys and describes the peer-reviewed social science literature in which data from the U.S. land remote sensing program, Landsat, inform public policy in managing natural resources and the environment. The Landsat program has provided the longest collection of observations of Earth from the vantage point of space. The paper differentiates two classes of research: methodology exploring how to use the data (for example, designing and testing algorithms or verifying the accuracy of the data) and applications of data to decisionmaking or policy implementation in managing land, air quality, water, and other natural and environmental resources. Selection of the studies uses social science-oriented bibliographic search indices and expands results of previous surveys that target only researchers specializing in remote sensing or photogrammetry. The usefulness of Landsat as a basis for informing public investment in the Landsat program will be underestimated if this body of research goes unrecognized. %Z Resources for the Future. RFF DP 09-01. pp.26 %9 Discussion Paper %@ RFF DP 09-01 %0 Book %D 2009 %T Global Change and Regional Agricultural Land Use %A Wirsig, Alexander %C Frankfurt am Main, Berlin, Bern, Bruxelles, New York, Oxford, Wien %I Peter Lang, %K Global Change, Climate Change, Landuse, Economic Modelling, CAP, Provison of Public Goods %P 187 %X This work investigates the impacts of Global and Climate Change on agricultural land use in the Upper Danube basin by using different scenario calculations with a regional non-linear agricultural sector model. The objective of the current study is to assess the economic and ecological impact of Global and Climate Change on regional agricultural land use in Europe by means of a regional case study for the Upper Danube basin. Key questions are: What are the short term impacts of climate change on agriculture for the next decade? What impacts are expected in the long run? What are the short term impacts on agriculture for the next decade taking into account socio-economic changes (agricultural policy, technological advance, prices)? Which scenario may be the least/most desirable with respect to the provision of ecosystem services by agriculture for a given region or farm type? %@ 9783631586983 %0 Conference Proceedings %B 33rd ISRSE conference %D 2009 %T Mid-resolution satellite contributions to GEOSS societal benefit areas: examples from the ASTER global mapping mission %A Duda, Kenneth %A Abrams, Michael %C Stresa, Italy %X Data applications employing global mid-resolution satellite imagery provide a wide range of significant societal benefits. The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) has enabled noteworthy contributions to be made in all societal benefit categories that were established by the Group on Earth Observations to guide development of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems. Examples of ASTER utility highlight the positive results achieved through well-crafted policies, responsive system implementation teams, and skilled researchers. Such models may serve as guides for future mission planning. %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Research Letters %D 2009 %T Professional review to investigate FEWS NET requirements for Earth observation of precipitation and vegetation %A Ross, Kenton %A Brown, Molly %A Verdin, James %A Underwood, Lauren %K 10.1088/1748-9326/4/2/024009 %P 10 %V 4 %X The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to famine and food insecurity. FEWS NET transforms satellite remote sensing data into rainfall and vegetation information that can be used by these decision makers. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has recently funded activities to enhance remote sensing inputs to FEWS NET. To elicit Earth observation requirements, a professional review questionnaire was disseminated to FEWS NET expert end-users; it focused upon operational requirements to determine additional useful remote sensing data and, subsequently, to assess whether such data would be beneficial as FEWS NET biophysical supplementary inputs. The review was completed by over 40 experts from around the world. Reviewers were asked to evaluate the relative importance of environmental variables and spatio-temporal requirements for Earth science data products, in particular for rainfall and vegetation products. The results showed that spatio-temporal resolution requirements are complex and need to vary according to place, time, and hazard; that high resolution remote sensing products continue to be in demand; and that rainfall and vegetation products are valued as data that provide actionable food security information. %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Applied Geography %D 2009 %T Quantifying deforestation and secondary forest determinants for different spatial extents in an Amazonian colonization frontier (Rondonia) %A Soler, Luciana de Souza %A Escada, Maria Isabel %A Verburg, Peter %K Deforestation, secodnary forest, spatial analysis, logistic regression, Brazilian Amazon %P 182-193 %U http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V7K-4TYXM4D-1&_user=533256&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_acct=C000026798&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=533256&md5=ecea66a05a78762b3d5fdad098aba624 %V 29 %X Spatial patterns of deforested areas and secondary forest are analyzed in terms of the spatial variation in location factors at different spatial extents. The spatial extents considered are old and new agrarian colonization projects and the administrative units of two different municipalities in Rondonia: Vale do Anari and Machadinho d’Oeste. A grid database was constructed including land cover and potential location factors based on biophysical, accessibility, socioeconomic and policy data. Results of the spatial analyses confirmed the hypothesis that different extents yield different relationships between land use/cover patterns and their location factors, particularly between old and new agrarian colonization projects. It emphasizes that current patterns of forest, secondary forest and pasture/agriculture can only be understood with a combination of policy, accessibility, biophysical and socioeconomic factors while accounting for the historical pathways of change. Because we are dealing with different trajectories of land use/cover change, static analysis of the spatial pattern without acknowledging these trajectories will lead to erroneous interpretations of the current and future land use/cover dynamics. %0 Conference Proceedings %B International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment (ISRSE) %D 2009 %T Right-sizing observation systems: a biodiversity example using a cost-benefit approach %A Scholes, R J %A Reyers, B %C Stresa, Italy %K Cost-benefit, wildlife census, value of information %X Although Earth observation systems are currently inadequate, hardly anyone can say what the optimum investment might be. An approach might be to size the system such that the marginal cost of a small incremental increase in effort is just more than the increase in net social benefit that results from the additional precision; and the savings from a marginal decrease in effort are less than the associated loss of social benefit. The approach is illustrated with an example based on wildlife survey in South Africa, made possible by a flourishing market for wildlife in the region, so the value per animal is reliably known, and the statistical benefit and incremental cost of increased observational effort are well understood. Results show that substantial increases in current survey efforts of high value animals are still possible before costs outweigh benefits. The study explores what this means for park managers and observation investment. %0 Conference Proceedings %B International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment (ISRSE) %D 2009 %T The role of GEOSS in monitoring ecosystems and their services %A Reyers, B %A O’Farrell, P %A Fritz, S %C Stresa, Italy %K Biodiversity, indicators, degradation, overgrazing, cost-benefit %X Global declines in biodiversity and ecosystem services have triggered national and international agreements to halt and reverse these trends (e.g. the Convention on Biological Diversity’s target of achieving a significant reduction in the current rate of biodiversity loss by 2010). These agreements have highlighted the need for monitoring systems which accurately describe the conditions and trends of biodiversity and ecosystem services, as well as the drivers of change. GEOSS aims to contribute to these needs in the ecosystems and biodiversity benefit areas. We demonstrate the benefits of GEOSS in the monitoring and assessment of biodiversity and ecosystem services using a case study from a semi-arid biodiversity hotspot in South Africa. Using data poor (non-GEOSS) and data rich (GEOSS) scenarios we highlight the substantial differences found in biodiversity and ecosystem service condition. We link these findings to the need for careful and well informed management of ecosystems in semi-arid regions. We conclude with a summary of the costs and benefits of improved data. %0 Report %D 2009 %T The EMMA / METEOALARM Multiservice Meteorological Awareness System %A Staudinger, M %C Geneva %I WMO %K spatial online weather warnings for Europe %P 174 %U http://www.meteoalarm.eu %X METEOALARM - The European Multihazard Warning System of EUMETNET In the past, meteorological warnings in Europe relied on most diverse system with the result that the information obtained by the producer of warnings was most diverse as well. In Europe and other parts of the world people are more and more travelling for professional and/or recreational purposes. The public would therefore often misunderstand or ignore the warnings being very diverse from country to country. Due to the project EMMA and the Internet product METEOALARM, these warnings have been harmonised across 21 countries and have been visualised via the Internet for other media. Already on the launch of its operational implementation in March 2007, 12 million hits per day were counted on the Web-server. METEOALARM is based on a 4-level warning system and has climatologically derived thresholds to care for different vulnerabilities across Europe. In the meantime interest came also from civil protection on national and European level, as standardised early warning systems are the only way to care for cross country assistance in real time. METEOALARM was managed and coordinated by ZAMG Salzburg. %0 Report %D 2009 %T The Business Case for Improving NOAA’s Management and Integration of Ocean and Coastal Data %A Willis, Zdenka %X One of NOAA’s most valuable assets is the data that it collects. Ocean and coastal data are critical to NOAA’s ability to deliver the products and services that provide significant, tangible benefits to society. Because of this, it is vital that users are able to access the vast stores of physical, biological, and chemical ocean data. To respond to user needs, the NOAA Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Program proposes to facilitate access to ocean and coastal data by improving the way data are integrated and managed. NOAA directed the IOOS Program to deliver a business case to address the capability gaps and potential solutions identified by the IOOS Program. This business case provides the rationale for improving NOAA ocean data management and integration, describes the demand for and value of ocean and coastal data, describes the current approach to supplying these data, and provides a detailed description of how an ocean data management solution can be achieved by evolving the current Data Integration Framework (DIF) efforts into a comprehensive Data Management and Communication (DMAC) capability. While there are many existing NOAA data integration efforts that focus on supporting a few models and tools, there is no comprehensive data management approach. NOAA and end users are spending significant amounts of time, sometimes 25 to 50 percent of an FTE, to access, format, and ingest the data for very product or output delivered. Smaller scale investments have yielded benefits for some users, but these are not available to all potential users, due to the limited scope of the solution. Research in private industry has found that quick fix solutions are less likely to generate the level of sustained benefit that an enterprise-wide data management solution can provide. This business case uses cost-benefit analysis to estimate the expected Net Present Value (NPV) to NOAA of an investment in DMAC. Using information collected from NOAA data users, the business case assesses the impacts of the current ocean data management structure, and estimates the potential benefits of a proposed new data management system. This business case also recognizes that there are significant benefits to non-NOAA organizations and to society at large; however, these benefits cannot be fully quantified and, therefore, have not been included in the cost-benefit analysis. The analysis indicates that an investment in DMAC would likely generate a NPV between $38 and $60 million dollars over a 15-year period. While this estimate does not include the benefits to non-NOAA users and the public, a significant body of literature estimates that societal benefits created by an integrated ocean observing system enabled by DMAC is likely to be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. The DMAC solution offers NOAA a feasible approach to implementing a data management solution that responds to the needs of a broad user community. Overall, the costs of development are small relative to the societal benefits, and the large internal benefit to NOAA indicates that DMAC is a low-risk investment. %0 Manuscript %D 2009 %T THE VALUE OF EARTH OBSERVATION FOR MANAGING THE GREAT BARRIER REEF %A Bouma, Jetske %A Kuika, Onno %A Dekker, Arnold %K Value of information, coral reefs, Earth Observation, water quality management, Bayesian, decision theory %P 18 %X This paper examines the economic benefits of Earth Observation (EO) information for managing the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We focus on water quality management and hypothesise that EO information improves welfare by better targeting emission reduction measures to the most polluting catchments. To assess the expected value of EO information we use Bayesian decision theory. We collect empirical data regarding the perceived utility and accuracy of EO information from key experts and stakeholders. To assess the welfare effects of improved decision-making we use cost estimates from the existing literature. The analysis suggests that the expected benefits of EO information for Great Barrier Reef management are substantial, but that outcomes are sensitive to a number of parameters. Further research seems equired to increase the robustness of results. %9 Munuscript %0 Conference Proceedings %B International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment (ISRSE) %D 2009 %T Uncertainties in global land cover data and its implications for climate change mitigation policies assessment %A Fritz, S %A Havlík, P %A Schneider, U A %A Schmid, E %A Obersteiner, M %C Stresa, Italy %X Land cover maps provide critical input data for global models of land use. Urgent questions exist, such as how much land is available for the expansion of agriculture to combat food insecurity, how high will be competition for land between food and bioenergy in the future as well as how much land is there available for afforestation projects? These questions can only be answered if reliable maps of land cover exist. We put this research in the framework of GEOSS, examine how modeling tools can be used for benefit assessment and design an assessment framework. We illustrate the importance of good quality global land cover maps by using cropland extend from the currently best global maps of land cover namely GLC-2000, MODIS, GlobCover and CropLikelyhood as input for the EPIC model (to model crop yields) and global economic land use model GLOBIOM. We use all of the 4 maps and create a maximum crop extend and map. Based on a baseline map and the maximum crop extend map e model effects of climate policies (e.g. the potentials of substitution of fossil fuels with biofuels). %0 Journal Article %J F I S H and F I S H E R I E S %D 2009 %T Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries %A Allison, Edward %A Perry, Allison %A Badjeck, Marie-Caroline %A Adger, Neil %A Brown, Katrina %A Conway, Declan %A Halls, Ashley %A Pilling, Graham %A Reynolds, John %A Andrew, Neil %A Dulvy, Nicholas %P 173–1 %V 10 %X Anthropogenic global warming has significantly influenced physical and biological processes at global and regional scales. The observed and anticipated changes in global climate present significant opportunities and challenges for societies and economies. We compare the vulnerability of 132 national economies to potential climate change impacts on their capture fisheries using an indicator-based approach. Countries in Central and Western Africa (e.g. Malawi, Guinea, Senegal, and Uganda), Peru and Colombia in north-western South America, and four tropical Asian countries (Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan, and Yemen) were identified as most vulnerable. This vulnerability was due to the combined effect of predicted warming, the relative importance of fisheries to national economies and diets, and limited societal capacity to adapt to potential impacts and opportunities. Many vulnerable countries were also among the world’s least developed countries whose inhabitants are among the world’s poorest and twice as reliant on fish, which provides 27% of dietary protein compared to 13% in less vulnerable countries. These countries also produce 20% of the world’s fish exports and are in greatest need of adaptation planning to maintain or enhance the contribution that fisheries can make to poverty reduction. Although the precise impacts and direction of climate-driven change for particular fish stocks and fisheries are uncertain, our analysis suggests they are likely to lead to either increased economic hardship or missed opportunities for development in countries that depend upon fisheries but lack the capacity to adapt. %0 Journal Article %J Space Policy %D 2008 %T A real options approach to satellite mission planning %A Fuss, Sabine %A Szolgayova, Jana %A Obersteiner, Michael %P 199-207 %U http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V52-4TRR8YM-1/2/4d79573c34136a7347836f62b63d7229 %V 24 %X Satellite missions are one instrument of Earth observation targeted at obtaining information for improved decision making in sustainable development. But satellite missions are expensive undertakings involving large sunk costs and facing uncertain benefit streams. In the area of avoiding damages through, for example, better weather forecasts or better-informed rescue missions, the benefits are high, but also difficult to quantify. Using real options to optimize the timing of the launch of a satellite enables us not only to optimize the timing of the mission, but also to derive the value that such information conveys when it can be used to reduce the extent of the damage from disasters and their consequences: with low benefit expectations or large uncertainty, launching will be postponed, so ex ante Earth observation benefit assessment is an important task. %Z Quantitative %9 Journal article %@ 0265-9646 %0 Journal Article %J Systems Journal, IEEE %D 2008 %T A Conceptual Framework for Assessing the Benefits of a Global Earth Observation System of Systems %A Fritz B., Scholes Obersteiner Bouma Reyers %P 338-348 %U http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/freeabs_all.jsp?isnumber=4626033arnumber=4595696 %V 2 %X The aim of the Global Earth Observation System-of-Systems (GEOSS) is to improve the information available to decision makers, at all levels, relating to human health and safety, protection of the global environment, the reduction of losses from natural disasters, and achieving sustainable development. Specifically, GEOSS proposes that better international cooperation in the collection, interpretation, and sharing of Earth observation information is an important and cost-effective mechanism for achieving this aim. While there is a widespread intuition that this proposition is correct, at some point the following question needs to be answered: how much additional investment in Earth observation (and specifically, in its international integration) is enough? This leads directly to some challenging subsidiary questions, such as how can the benefits of Earth observation be assessed? What are the incremental costs of GEOSS? Are there societal benefit areas where the return on investment is higher than in others? The Geo-Bene Project has developed a ldquobenefit chainrdquo concept as a framework for addressing these questions. The basic idea is that an incremental improvement in the observing system (including its data collection, interpretation and information-sharing aspects) will result in an improvement in the quality of decisions based on that information. In turn, this will lead to better societal outcomes, which have a value. This incremental value must be judged against the incremental cost of the improved observation system. Since in many cases there will be large uncertainties in the estimation of both the costs and the benefits, and it may not be possible to express them in comparable monetary terms, we show how order-of-magnitude approaches and a qualitative understanding of the shape of the cost and benefit curves can help guide rational investment decisions in Earth Observation Systems. %Z Qualitative %9 Journal article %@ 1932-8184 %0 Journal Article %J Coastal Management %D 2008 %T A Bayesian Methodology for Estimating the Impacts of Improved Coastal Ocean Information on the Marine Recreational Fishing Industry %A Wieand, Kenneth %P pp. 208–223 %V 36:2 %0 Conference Proceedings %B Advanced Communication Technology, 2008. ICACT 2008. 10th International Conference on 17-20 Feb. 2008 %D 2008 %T An Efficient Grid Based Metadata Processing And Sharing Architecture For GEOSS %A Hassan, M M %A Eui-Nam, Huh %K geophysics computing, grid computing, geospatial data, global earth observation system of systems, grid based metadata processing, management system, metadata extraction, sharing architecture, EO data and Geospatial data, GEOSS, Grid, Metadata %P 2071-2075 %U http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpls/abs_all.jsp?arnumber=4494195 %V 3 %X The global earth observation system of systems (GEOSS) is being developed as a framework for existing and future Earth observation systems which will be comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable. Many earth observation (EO) resources have been created, and are available to the global community, in order to support scientists, decision makers, and the general populace. To realize a successful GEOSS, the key is to provide mechanisms that enable EO data and geospatial data from those resources to be processed, shared and coordinated. In this paper, we propose an architecture for GEOSS which aims at providing a metadata extraction and management system for EO and geospatial data and sharing these data transparently, efficiently and securely in a grid environment. %Z Qualitative %9 Conference Proceedings %@ 1738-9445 %0 Report %D 2008 %T Banda Aceh-The Value of Earth Observation Data in Disaster Recovery and Reconstruction: A Case Study %A I., McCallum %A Kidd, R %A Fritz, S %A Kraxner, F %A Obersteiner, M %C Laxenburg %I International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis %P 18 %U http://www.iiasa.ac.at/cgi-bin/pub/pubsrchKK?SWID:IR08048&O,n %X On 26 December 2004, Banda Aceh in Indonesia was at the center of one of the worst natural disasters to affect mankind. Large amounts of international aid poured in to assist in the relief and reconstruction efforts. Amongst this effort, were investments in basic earth observation data from in-situ, airborne and space observations. While the use of this data is assumed to be crucial, few efforts have gone into quantifying the benefits of its acquisition. The objectives of this study were to interview a cross-section of agencies operating in Banda Aceh and across the province of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam on the use, sources and quality of earth observation data in the relief/reconstruction effort; and to analyze and quantify the value that earth observation data brings to the relief/reconstruction effort based on the survey results and specific examples. Key findings from the interviews point to an overall improvement in the spatial data situation since the tsunami. Problems identified included insufficient training, lack of timely data and sometimes poor spatial resolution. Specific examples of the cost-benefits of earth observation data were typically on the order of millions of dollars and involved large time savings. IIASA is one of 12 partners in the European Union sponsored project “Global Earth Observation―Benefit Estimation: Now, Next and Emerging” (GEO-BENE). Additional GEO-BENE partner countries include Germany, Switzerland, Slovakia, Netherlands, Finland, South Africa and Japan. Within GEO-BENE we are developing methodologies and analytical tools to assess societal benefits of GEO in nine societal benefit areas― one of which is disasters. The tsunami affected province of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam, and specifically Banda Aceh, has been selected as a case study. Other case studies representing different societal benefit areas include: biodiversity in South Africa, health and climate in Finland, fire in Europe, etc. For more information please refer to: www.geo-bene.eu. %0 Journal Article %J Sensors %D 2008 %T Connecting Hazard Analysts and Risk Managers to Sensor Information %A Le Cozannet, Gonéri %A Hosford, Steven %A Douglas, John %A Serrano, Jean-Jacques %A Coraboeuf, Damien %A Comte, Jérémie %K hazard maps, geohazards, OGC metadata catalogue, risk management, GEOSS %P 3932-3937 %U http://www.mdpi.com/1424-8220/8/6/3932 %V 8 %X Hazard analysts and risk managers of natural perils, such as earthquakes, landslides and floods, need to access information from sensor networks surveying their regions of interest. However, currently information about these networks is difficult to obtain and is available in varying formats, thereby restricting accesses and consequently possibly leading to decision-making based on limited information. As a response to this issue, state-of-the-art interoperable catalogues are being currently developed within the framework of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) workplan. This article provides an overview of the prototype catalogue that was developed to improve access to information about the sensor networks surveying geological hazards (geohazards), such as earthquakes, landslides and volcanoes. %Z Qualitative %9 Journal article %@ 1424-8220 %0 Journal Article %J Remote Sensing of Environment %D 2008 %T Earth observations for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems %A Muchoney, Douglas %K Earth observation, Biodiversity, Ecosystems, Terrestrial %P 1909-1911 %U http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V6V-4RV1JTP-1/2/7e7b6a9cb672671eee8580033fe8221b %V 112 %X Earth observations, comprising satellite, aerial, and in situ systems, are increasingly recognized as critical observations for monitoring the Earth system and systems. Earth observation data are especially needed to fulfil the requirements of a host of international treaties and conventions, and to provide data and information to support conservation and resource management. The Group on Earth Observations, GEO was established to implement the Global Earth Observing Systems of Systems, GEOSS, which includes in its mandate the protection of ecosystems -- Improving the management and protection of terrestrial, coastal, and marine ecosystems, and understanding, monitoring, and conserving biodiversity. This Special Issue focuses on Earth observations for terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity. As such, it is a sampler of remote sensing assessments of the status and trends of biodiversity (species), and ecosystems. %Z Qualitative %9 Journal article %@ 0034-4257 %0 Journal Article %J Remote Sensing of Environment %D 2008 %T Evaluation of Multi-Sensor Semi-Arid Crop Season Parameters Based on NDVI and Rainfall %A Brown, and de Beurs %N 5 %P 2261-2271 %V 112 %X Metrics that estimate the beginning of the growing season in semi-arid monsoonal ecosystems have become a central part of both crop models that are used to monitor crop production using satellite remote sensing and early warning indicators of possible future reductions in yield due to growing season length. This paper presents a new phenological model which is tuned to the semi-arid, monsoonal ecosystem of the West African Sahel and that uses humidity instead of calendar dates to identify the beginning of the season. We implement this model on vegetation index data from AVHRR, SPOT-Vegetation and MODIS data, and evaluate the results along with a rainfall-based start of season estimate for the region. Contributions of the paper include evaluating existing methods using ground observations of sowing date, comparing the same metric across multiple sensors and to rainfall-based SOS, and the development of a metric based on NDVI and relative humidity. %0 Journal Article %J Coastal Man-agement %D 2008 %T Estimating the Economic Benefits of Regional Ocean Observing Systems %A Kite-Powell, Hauke %A Colgan, Charles %A Weiher, Rodney %P pp. 125–145 %V 36:2 %0 Journal Article %J Global Change Biology %D 2008 %T Getting biodiversity intactness indices right: ensuring that biodiversity reflects diversity %A Faith, D P %A Ferrier, S %A Williams, K J %P 207-217 %U http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01500.x %V 14 %X The 2010 biodiversity target of a significant reduction in the current rate of biodiversity loss presents challenges for effective measurement of changes in global/regional biodiversity. A simple biodiversity intactness index (BII) is attractive in using available data and expert opinion, but is seen to be only weakly linked to biodiversity in its usual sense of variation. An example illustrates how an improved BII score could result even when there are large species losses. A family of alternative biodiversity representativeness indices better reflect variation. They use the same readily available information, plus simple species2013area relationships (SAR) and genetic diversity curves. A new genetic-diversity abundance-fraction curve, like SAR, is linear in log2013log space. The new representativeness indices incorporate, through range-abundance curves, the abundance fraction estimates normally used for BII. Land use or climate change impacts therefore can reflect partial rather than total biodiversity losses at localities. Estimates of biodiversity gains/losses using these indices enable a novel regional planning-based approach for addressing the 2010 target. %Z Qualitative %9 Journal article %@ 1365-2486 %0 Journal Article %J GIS Business %D 2008 %T Globale Geodaten helfen in Mosambik. GEOSS, GMES, UN-SPIDER im Einsatz %A Zeil, P %K Mosambik, GIS, Entwicklungshilfe %P 28-30 %U http://www.geodok.uni-erlangen.de/link/?q=2008+Zeil+Globale+Geodaten+helfen+Mosambik+GEOSS+Mosambik+XR %Z Qualitative %9 Journal article %0 Report %D 2008 %T GEO Information Sheets %A GEO %C Geneva %I Group on Earth Observations %P 30 %U http://www.earthobservations.org/documents/GEO%20information%20kit%201107.pdf %Z Qualitative %9 Report %0 Report %D 2008 %T GEO 2009-2011 Work Plan - Version 2 %A GEO %C Geneva %I Group on Earth Observations %P 47 %U http://wgiss.ceos.org/meetings/wgiss26/WGISS_26_Boulder/9.22.08/UIC/geo256boulderworkplanGEO_WP0911_V2.pdf %Z Qualitative %9 Report %0 Journal Article %J Global and planetary change %D 2008 %T Land degradation and economic conditions of agricultural households in a marginal region of northern Greece %A Lorent and E. F. Lambin., Evangelou Stellmes Hill Papanastasis Tsiourlis Roeder %K desertification ; land degradation ; subsidies ; remote sensing ; drylands ; Greece %N 3-4 %P 198-209 %U http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VF0-4TTMJV2-2&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=981322051&_rerunOrigin=google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=3cc446c571da5167a02 %V 64 %X Land degradation is caused by and has impacts on both the social and natural components of coupled human-environment systems. However, few studies integrate both aspects simultaneously. The main objective of this study is to test a method to evaluate land degradation based on the integration of aggregate metrics of biophysical and socio-economic “degradation”. We applied a framework that integrates the biophysical and socio-economic dimensions of land degradation to test the hypothesis that macro-economic policies, and in particular agricultural subsidies, are an important driving force of land degradation in marginal regions of the Mediterranean Europe. We analysed the influence of subsidies on the profitability of each crop and livestock type found in a sample of farms in a region of northern Greece. Spatial and socio-economic data on agricultural households were collected to link remote sensing data and land degradation maps to socio-economic conditions of these households, as measured by the standard gross margin. The results demonstrate that subsidies provide a crucial socio-economic support to maintain the profitability of agricultural activities but may also promote land-use practices with damaging ecological impacts. Different levels of biophysical and socio-economic “degradation” were associated with different land use practices. The integration of the socio-economic and biophysical dimensions of land degradation reveals associations that would not be detectable if indicators along one dimension alone would be used. %0 Journal Article %J Remote Sensing of Environment %D 2008 %T Multiscale Geostatistical Analysis of AVHRR, SPOT-VGT, and MODIS Global NDVI Records %A Tarnavsky, E %A Garrigues, S %A , Brown %N 2 %P 535-549 %V 112 %X Global NDVI data are routinely derived from the AVHRR, SPOT-VGT, and MODIS/Terra earth observation records for a range of applications from terrestrial vegetation monitoring to climate change modeling. This has led to a substantial interest in the harmonization of multisensor records. Most evaluations of the internal consistency and continuity of global multisensor NDVI products have focused on time-series harmonization in the spectral domain, often neglecting the spatial domain. We fill this void by applying variogram modeling (a) to evaluate the differences in spatial variability between 8-km AVHRR, 1-km SPOT-VGT, and 1-km, 500-m, and 250-m MODIS NDVI products over eight EOS (Earth Observing System) validation sites, and (b) to characterize the decay of spatial variability as a function of pixel size (i.e. data regularization) for spatially aggregated Landsat ETM+ NDVI products and a real multisensor dataset. First, we demonstrate that the conjunctive analysis of two variogram properties – the sill and the mean length scale metric – provides a robust assessment of the differences in spatial variability between multiscale NDVI products that are due to spatial (nominal pixel size, point spread function, and view angle) and non-spatial (sensor calibration, cloud clearing, atmospheric corrections, and length of multi-day compositing period) factors. Next, we show that as the nominal pixel size increases, the decay of spatial information content follows a logarithmic relationship with stronger fit value for the spatially aggregated NDVI products (R2 = 0.9321) than for the native-resolution AVHRR, SPOT-VGT, and MODIS NDVI products (R2 = 0.5064). This relationship serves as a reference for evaluation of the differences in spatial variability and length scales in multiscale datasets at native or aggregated spatial resolutions. The outcomes of this study suggest that multisensor NDVI records cannot be integrated into a long-term data record without proper consideration of all factors affecting their spatial consistency. Hence, we propose an approach for selecting the spatial resolution, at which differences in spatial variability between NDVI products from multiple sensors are minimized. This approach provides practical guidance for the harmonization of long-term multisensor datasets. %0 Journal Article %J PNAS %D 2008 %T Mapping H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza risk in Southeast Asia %A Gilbert, Marius %A Xiao, Xiangming %A Pfeiffer, Dirk %A Epprecht, M %A Boles, Stephen %A Czarnecki, Christina %A Chaitaweesub, Prasit %A Kalpravidh, Wantanee %A Minh, Phan %A Otte, M J %A Martin, Vincent %A Slingenbergh, Jan %U http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0710581105 %X The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus that emerged in southern China in the mid-1990s has in recent years evolved into the first HPAI panzootic. In many countries where the virus was detected, the virus was successfully controlled, whereas other countries face periodic reoccurrence despite significant con- trol efforts. A central question is to understand the factors favoring the continuing reoccurrence of the virus. The abundance of do- mestic ducks, in particular free-grazing ducks feeding in intensive rice cropping areas, has been identified as one such risk factor based on separate studies carried out in Thailand and Vietnam. In addition, recent extensive progress was made in the spatial pre- diction of rice cropping intensity obtained through satellite imag- ery processing. This article analyses the statistical association between the recorded HPAI H5N1 virus presence and a set of five key environmental variables comprising elevation, human popu- lation, chicken numbers, duck numbers, and rice cropping intensity for three synchronous epidemic waves in Thailand and Vietnam. A consistent pattern emerges suggesting risk to be associated with duck abundance, human population, and rice cropping intensity in contrast to a relatively low association with chicken numbers. A statistical risk model based on the second epidemic wave data in Thailand is found to maintain its predictive power when extrap- olated to Vietnam, which supports its application to other coun- tries with similar agro-ecological conditions such as Laos or Cam- bodia. The model’s potential application to mapping HPAI H5N1 disease risk in Indonesia is discussed. %0 Journal Article %J Coastal Man- agement %D 2008 %T Potential Benefit of Coastal Ocean Observing Systems to Alaskan Commercial Fisheries %A Wellman, Katherine %A Hartley, Marcus %P pp. 193–207 %V 36:2 %0 Journal Article %J Interdisciplinary Science Reviews %D 2008 %T Towards a global climate observing system %A Fellous, Jean-Louis %P 83-94 %U http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/maney/isr/2008/00000033/00000001/art00007 %V 33 %X A global climate observation system is essential to improve our understanding of the climate system and our ability to anticipate trends. This article addresses the criteria that such a system must meet, and the range of observation techniques which must be implemented. Observations collected by satellite must be calibrated, validated and supplemented by surface and subsurface measurements in the atmosphere, the ocean and on land. All these observations need to be used in conjunction with numerical models and data distribution networks, and maintained in a complex of centres for archiving and reprocessing of environmental data. A global effort is required to meet these challenges, based on intensive international cooperation. The article describes activities in Europe and elsewhere, among them the World Weather Watch of WMO, the European initiative GMES (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security), and particularly the GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems), developed in the intergovernmental framework of GEO (Group on Earth Observations) to overcome obstacles of all kinds and achieve the objectives of a global climate observing system. %Z Qualitative %9 Journal article %0 Journal Article %J Science %D 2008 %T Toward a Global Biodiversity Observing System %A Scholes, R J %A Mace, G M %A Turner, W %A Geller, G N %A Jurgens, N %A Larigauderie, A %A Muchoney, D %A Walther, B A %A Mooney, H A %P 1044 - 1045 %U http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/321/5892/1044 %V 321 %X Tracking biodiversity change is increasingly important in sustaining ecosystems and ultimately human well-being. %0 Journal Article %J Coastal Management %D 2008 %T The Potential Economic Benefits of Coastal Ocean Observing Systems: The Southeast Atlantic Region %A Dumas, Christopher %A Whitehead, John %P pp. 146–164 %V 36 %0 Report %D 2008 %T Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other projections in decision support for selected sectors and regions %A U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Subcommittee on Global Change Research %C Washington, D.C. %I National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) %P 73 %U http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap5-1/final-report/ %Z Qualitative %9 Report %0 Journal Article %J International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation %D 2007 %T A review on reflective remote sensing and data assimilation techniques for enhanced agroecosystem modeling %A Dorigo, W A %A Zurita-Milla, R %A Wit, A J W %A Brazile, J %A Singh, R %A Schaepman, M E %K accuracy assessment, agricultural ecosystem, agricultural management, canopy reflectance, data assimilation, lidar modeling, remote sensing, spatiotemporal analysis, vegetation index %P 165-193 %U http://www.scopus.com/scopus/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-34047245996partnerID=40 %V 9 %X During the last 50 years, the management of agroecosystems has been undergoing major changes to meet the growing demand for food, timber, fibre and fuel. As a result of this intensified use, the ecological status of many agroecosystems has been severely deteriorated. Modeling the behavior of agroecosystems is, therefore, of great help since it allows the definition of management strategies that maximize (crop) production while minimizing the environmental impacts. Remote sensing can support such modeling by offering information on the spatial and temporal variation of important canopy state variables which would be very difficult to obtain otherwise. In this paper, we present an overview of different methods that can be used to derive biophysical and biochemical canopy state variables from optical remote sensing data in the VNIR-SWIR regions. The overview is based on an extensive literature review where both statistical-empirical and physically based methods are discussed. Subsequently, the prevailing techniques of assimilating remote sensing data into agroecosystem models are outlined. The increasing complexity of data assimilation methods and of models describing agroecosystem functioning has significantly increased computational demands. For this reason, we include a short section on the potential of parallel processing to deal with the complex and computationally intensive algorithms described in the preceding sections. The studied literature reveals that many valuable techniques have been developed both for the retrieval of canopy state variables from reflective remote sensing data as for assimilating the retrieved variables in agroecosystem models. However, for agroecosystem modeling and remote sensing data assimilation to be commonly employed on a global operational basis, emphasis will have to be put on bridging the mismatch between data availability and accuracy on one hand, and model and user requirements on the other. This could be achieved by integrating imagery with different spatial, temporal, spectral, and angular resolutions, and the fusion of optical data with data of different origin, such as LIDAR and radar/microwave. %Z Quantitative %9 Journal article %@ 15698432 (ISSN) %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Applied Remote Sensing %D 2007 %T Ascribing societal benefit to applied remote sensing data products: an examination of methodologies based on the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer experience %A Macauley, Molly %A Diner, Dave %K applied remote sensing, multi-angle imaging, spectroradiometer, societal benefit, economics, Earth observations %P 013538 %U http://link.aip.org/link/?JRS/1/013538/1 %V 1 %X This paper describes and illustrates frameworks for societal benefits associated with data products from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR), one of five instruments launched into polar orbit aboard NASAs Terra spacecraft in December 1999. The objective of framing and illustrating benefits is impelled by the January, 2007, U.S. National Research Councils seminal decadal survey of U.S. Earth science. The survey urges that all missions explicitly identify potential societal benefits in mission planning and operation. In this paper, our retrospective look at MISR offers approaches which mission planning for future instruments could operationalize. Societal benefit generally refers to practical applications of data and data products beyond their intrinsic science merit. The paper demonstrates how societal benefit frameworks work, highlights some of these benefits in the case of MISR, and seeks to provide useful guidance for benefit descriptions in future multi-angle and other Earth observation research programs. %Z Qualitative %9 Journal article %@ 1931-3195 %0 Journal Article %J International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation %D 2007 %T Capturing the fugitive: Applying remote sensing to terrestrial animal distribution and diversity %A Leyequien, Euridice %A Verrelst, Jochem %A Slot, Martijn %A Schaepman-Strub, Gabriela %A Heitkönig, Ignas %A Skidmore, Andrew %K Biodiversity, Animal species richness, NDVI, Habitat mapping, Habitat heterogeneity, Remote sensing %P 1-20 %U http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6X2F-4M2WP9M-1/2/28116fb92805dc42e8f7fa27dff119e1 %V 9 %X Amongst many ongoing initiatives to preserve biodiversity, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment again shows the importance to slow down the loss of biological diversity. However, there is still a gap in the overview of global patterns of species distributions. This paper reviews how remote sensing has been used to assess terrestrial faunal diversity, with emphasis on proxies and methodologies, while exploring prospective challenges for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity. We grouped and discussed papers dealing with the faunal taxa mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and invertebrates into five classes of surrogates of animal diversity: (1) habitat suitability, (2) photosynthetic productivity, (3) multi-temporal patterns, (4) structural properties of habitat, and (5) forage quality. It is concluded that the most promising approach for the assessment, monitoring, prediction, and conservation of faunal diversity appears to be the synergy of remote sensing products and auxiliary data with ecological biodiversity models, and a subsequent validation of the results using traditional observation techniques. %Z Qualitative %9 Journal article %@ 0303-2434 %0 Journal Article %J GeoJournal %D 2007 %T Citizens as sensors: the world of volunteered geography %A Goodchild, Michael %P 211-221 %U http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10708-007-9111-y %V 69 %X In recent months there has been an explosion of interest in using the Web to create, assemble, and disseminate geographic information provided voluntarily by individuals. Sites such as Wikimapia and OpenStreetMap are empowering citizens to create a global patchwork of geographic information, while Google Earth and other virtual globes are encouraging volunteers to develop interesting applications using their own data. I review this phenomenon, and examine associated issues: what drives people to do this, how accurate are the results, will they threaten individual privacy, and how can they augment more conventional sources? I compare this new phenomenon to more traditional citizen science and the role of the amateur in geographic observation. %Z Qualitative %9 Journal article %0 Journal Article %J Natural Ha- zards Review %D 2007 %T The Economic Value of Hurricane Forecasts: An Overview and Research Needs %A Letson, David %A Sutter, Daniel %A Lazo, Jeffrey %P pp. 78–86 %V 8 %0 Report %D 2007 %T The Space Economy at a Glance 2007 %A OECD %C Paris %I Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development %P 105 %U http://puck.sourceoecd.org/vl=772422/cl=13/nw=1/rpsv/ij/oecdthemes/99980010/v2007n15/s1/p1l %X Space applications are becoming an increasingly important part of everyday life. Weather forecasting, air traffic control, global communications and broadcasting, disaster management -- these and many other key activities would be almost unthinkable today without satellite technology. The space industry itself is relatively small compared to other manufacturing sectors, but its technological dynamism and strategic significance mean that it plays an ever more critical role in modern society. Paradoxically, it also figures among the sectors which are the least developed in terms of robust, internationally comparable statistics and data. This book attempts to rectify that situation by assembling information from a wide range of official and non-official sources. Together these paint a richly detailed picture of the space industry, its downstream services activities, and its wider economic and social impacts. Who are the main space-faring nations? How large are revenues and how much employment is there in the sector? How much RD goes on, and where? What is the value of spin-offs from space spending? Answers to these and other questions are provided in this first-ever OECD statistical overview of the emerging space economy. %Z Quantitative %9 Report %@ 926403109X %0 Generic %D 2006 %T Ascribing Societal Benefit to Environmental Observations of Earth from Space: The Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) %A Macauley, M K %I Resources for the Future %K societal benefits, resource and environmental management, Earth observations, Earth science %P 27 %U http://www.rff.org/Publications/Pages/PublicationDetails.aspx?PublicationID=17435 %X At the request of managers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, this paper describes frameworks for and illustrates societal benefits associated with Earth observations from an experimental satellite known as the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR). MISR is a unique camera that images Earth’s atmosphere and other characteristics simultaneously from nine angles. This multiangle perspective enhances our ability to measure and monitor dimensions of climate, weather, air quality, natural hazards, and the biosphere. “Societal benefit” in this paper generally refers to practical applications of data and data products beyond their intrinsic science merit. The paper has two objectives: to demonstrate how several societal benefit frameworks work, and to highlight some of these benefits in the case of MISR. Such consideration of practical benefits is timely, as their realization is becoming a prominent objective of future space remote sensing activities. At least four groups of experts recommend that societal benefit serve as a heavily weighted criterion for prioritizing Earth science research opportunities. The National Academy of Sciences’ forthcoming decadal survey for U.S. Earth science applications from space, the U.S. Climate Change Research Program, the framework for the international Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS), and the new world water program of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) all argue that societal benefit should be a determining factor in selecting the next Earth-observing spacecraft missions and instruments. If these recommendations are implemented, the frameworks and illustrations below may prove useful in guiding benefit descriptions in future space-derived Earth observation programs. %Z Resources for the Future. RFF DP 06-09. 26 pp. %9 Discussion Paper %@ RFF DP 06-09 %0 Journal Article %J IEEE Transactions Geoscience and Remote Sensing %D 2006 %T Evaluation of the consistency of long-term NDVI time series derived from AVHRR, SPOT-Vegetation, SeaWiFS, MODIS and LandSAT ETM+ %A Brown, M E %A Pinzon, J E %A Didan, K %A Morisette, J T %A Tucker, C J %P 1787-1793 %V 44 %X This paper evaluates the consistency of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) records derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), SPOT-Vegetation, SeaWiFS, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and Landsat ETM+. We used independently derived NDVI from atmospherically corrected ETM+ data at 13 Earth Observation System Land Validation core sites, eight locations of drought, and globally aggregated one-degree data from the four coarse resolution sensors to assess the NDVI records agreement. The objectives of this paper are to: 1) compare the absolute and relative differences of the vegetation signal across these sensors from a user perspective, and, to a lesser degree, 2) evaluate the possibility of merging the AVHRR historical data record with that of the more modern sensors in order to provide historical perspective on current vegetation activities. The statistical and correlation analyses demonstrate that due to the similarity in their overall variance, it is not necessary to choose between the longer time series of AVHRR and the higher quality of the more modern sensors. The long-term AVHRR-NDVI record provides a critical historical perspective on vegetation activities necessary for global change research and, thus, should be the basis of an intercalibrated, sensor-independent NDVI data record. This paper suggests that continuity is achievable given the similarity between these datasets. %0 Report %D 2006 %T GMES Review Study on In-Situ Monitoring - Final Draft %A Höller, Robert %A Banko, Gebhard %I European Environment Agency %P 124 %U http://eea.eionet.europa.eu/Public/irc/eionet-circle/gmes/library?l=/13-gmes_151206pdf/_EN_1.0_a=d %Z Qualitative %9 Report %0 Report %D 2006 %T Report of International Workshop on Spatial Data Infrastructures’Cost-Benefit / Return onInvestment %A Commission, European %C Ispra %I Joint Research Centre %P 57 %U http://www.ec-gis.org/sdi/ws/costbenefit2006/reports.cfm %Z Quantitative %9 Report %0 Report %D 2006 %T Socio-Economic Benefits Analysis of GMES - Main Report %A PricewaterhouseCoopers %I ESA %P 205 %U http://esamultimedia.esa.int/docs/GMES/261006_GMES_D10_final.pdf %Z Quantitative %9 Report %0 Report %D 2006 %T Socio-Economic Benefits Analysis of GMES - Annexes %A PricewaterhouseCoopers %I ESA %P 97 %U http://esamultimedia.esa.int/docs/GMES/261006_GMES_D10_final_annexes.pdf %Z Quantitative %9 Report %0 Journal Article %J Space Policy %D 2006 %T The value of information: Measuring the contribution of space-derived earth science data to resource management %A Macauley, M K %P 274-282 %U http://www.scopus.com/scopus/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-33750949172partnerID=40 %V 22 %X Governments around the world, as well as private industry, invest heavily in remote sensing spacecraft to obtain data about natural and environmental resources, climate change, and the relationship of earth science to human health and quality of life. Numerous studies have been undertaken to describe and measure the value of the data from these spacecraft in order to justify further investments. The studies use a wide variety of methods and generally find a large range of benefits, from quite small to very large, in part because of differences in methodologies. This article offers a general framework for measuring the value of information. The framework serves two purposes. One is provision of a comprehensive and common basis by which to conduct and evaluate studies of the value of earth science. The second is to better inform decision makers about the value of data. Decision makers comprise three communities: consumers and producers of information, public officials whose job is to invest in data acquisition and information development (including sensors and other hardware, algorithm design and software tools, and a trained labor force), and the public at large. %Z Quantitative %9 Journal article %@ 02659646 %0 Journal Article %J Space Policy %D 2005 %T Advantages and disadvantages of prizes in a portfolio of financial incentives for space activities %A Macauley, M K %P 121-128 %U http://www.scopus.com/scopus/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-20444408380partnerID=40 %V 21 %X The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has proposed to use financial prizes to encourage innovation in space technology. Public debate about the use of prizes questions their effectiveness, the role of government compared with the private sector in administering prizes - for example, the Ansari X-Prize for human suborbital flight was privately funded and administered - and other issues that are likely to influence the success of this approach. %Z Qualitative %9 Journal article %@ 02659646 %0 Journal Article %J International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation %D 2005 %T A multidisciplinary multi-scale framework for assessing vulnerabilities to global change %A Metzger, Marc %A Leemans, Rik %A Schröter, Dagmar %K Adaptive capacity,Climate change,Ecosystem services,Environmental stratification,Potential impact,Vulnerability assessment %P 253-267 %U http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6X2F-4H9YCF6-2/2/aaef0cdce9837856bf48be43fdba623c %V 7 %X Terrestrial ecosystems provide a number of vital services for people and society, such as food, fibre, water resources, carbon sequestration, and recreation. The future capability of ecosystems to provide these services is determined by changes in socio-economic factors, land use, atmospheric composition, and climate. Most impact assessments do not quantify the vulnerability of ecosystems and ecosystem services under such environmental change. They cannot answer important policy-relevant questions such as [`]Which are the main regions or sectors that are most vulnerable to global change? [`]How do the vulnerabilities of two regions compare? [`]Which scenario is the least harmful for a sector? This paper describes a new approach to vulnerability assessment developed by the Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling (ATEAM) project. Different ecosystem models, covering biodiversity, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, and carbon sequestration are fed with the same Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Each model gives insights into specific ecosystems, as in traditional impact assessments. Moreover, by integrating the results in a vulnerability assessment, the policy-relevant questions listed above can also be addressed. A statistically derived European environmental stratification forms a key element in the vulnerability assessment. By linking it to other quantitative environmental stratifications, comparisons can be made using data from different assessments and spatial scales. %Z Quantitative %9 Journal article %@ 0303-2434 %0 Journal Article %J Nature %D 2005 %T Earth observing Something to watch over us %A Lubick, Naomi %P 168-169 %U http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/436168a %V 436 %Z Qualitative %9 Journal article %@ 0028-0836 %0 Generic %D 2005 %T EU Research for Sustainable Earth Observation - Watching the World for a better Tomorrow %A Commission, European %C Brussels %P 20 %U http://ec.europa.eu/research/environment/pdf/eo_envt_en.pdf %V EUR 21457 %Z EUR 21457 %9 Pamphlet %0 Report %D 2005 %T Geospatial Interoperability Return on Investment Study %A , National Aeronautics and Space Administration %C Crofton %I National Aeronautics and Space Administration %K standards, interoperability, return on investment %U http://portal.opengeospatial.org/files/?artifact_id=35424 %X The purpose of this study is to measure, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the return on investment (ROI) to organizations implementing geospatial standards, standards specifically developed to promote interoperability between a wide variety of different applications. This study uses cost-benefit methodologies to quantify the value of geospatial interoperability standards and to determine to whom the benefits accrue and when they accrue. %0 Report %D 2005 %T Report on the mapping of Growing Stock, Biomass and Increment on European Forests Contribution to Work Package 1 Data - the inventory data, flux tower network, FAPAR %A Van Brusselen, Jo %A Päivinen, Risto %A Schelhaas, Mart-Jan %A Pussinen, Ari %A Schuck, Andreas %I EFI %P 52 %U http://camels.metoffice.com/Presentations/CAMELS_GIS_01.pdf %Z Quantitative %9 Report %0 Book %D 2005 %T Space 2030: Tackling Societys Challenges Complete Edition %A OECD %C Paris %I OECD %P 328 %U http://www.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/display.asp?CID=&LANG=EN&SF1=DI&ST1=5LH1SKT645BX %X This book explores the contribution space systems might make in dealing with looming societal challenges related to threats to the physical environment and the management of natural resources, growing mobility and its consequences, increasing security concerns, and the shift to the information society. It discusses the challenges for developing space applications. It assesses the strengths and weaknesses of the institutional, legal and regulatory frameworks that currently govern space activities in the OECD area and beyond. Finally, it formulates an overall policy framework that OECD governments might use in drafting policies designed to ensure that the potential that space has to offer is actually realised. %Z Qualitative %9 Electronic Book %@ 9264008322 %0 Journal Article %J Local to Global Data Interoperability - Challenges and Technologies %D 2005 %T The global earth observation system of systems (GEOSS) %A Lautenbacher, Jr. %P 47- 50 %U http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/freeabs_all.jsp?arnumber=1612463 %X The global earth observation system of systems (GEOSS) is an environmental priority at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), within our U.S. interagency community, and within the international community because it has enormous potential benefits for the entire world. Over time, GEOSS provides an important scientific basis for sound policy and decision making in every sector of our society including energy, public health, agriculture, transportation and numerous other areas that shape the quality of everyday life. In less than two years, the number of participating countries has nearly doubled, and interest has grown since the recent tsunami tragedy. Over 40 international organizations also support the emerging global network. In the coming months, more countries and global organizations are expected to join the historic initiative. %Z Qualitative %9 Journal article %@ 0-7803-9228-0 %0 Report %D 2004 %T African Climate Report. A Report Commissioned by the UK Government to Review African Climate Science, Policy and Options for Action %A Washington, Richard %A Harrison, Mike %A Conway, Declean %C London %I Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and Department for International Development %P 45 %U http://ictupdate.cta.int/en/Documents/PDF-African-Climate-Report-A-report-commissioned-by-the-UK-Government-to-review-African-climate-science,-policy-and-options-for-action %X Detailed review of regional temperature and rainfall changes in Africa projected by nine state-of-the-art global climate models from the UK’s Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. %Z Qualitative %9 Report %0 Report %D 2004 %T Draft GEOSS 10-Year Implementation Plan - REFERENCE DOCUMENT %A , IPTT %C Geneva %I Ad hoc Group on Earth Observations (GEO) Implementation Plan Task Team (IPTT) %P 148 %U http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/ISS/ICG-FWIS-I/IPTTextracts.pdf %Z Qualitative %9 Report %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Applied Meteorology %D 2004 %T The Value of Hurricane Forecasts to Oil and Gas Producers in the Gulf of Mexico %A Considine, Timothy %A Jablonowski, Christopher %A Posner, Barry %A Bishop, Craig %P pp. 1270–1281 %V Vol. 43 %0 Journal Article %J Space Policy %D 2003 %T A Herculean task? Economics, politics, and realigning government in the case of US polar-orbiting weather satellites %A Macauley, Molly %P 249-259 %U http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V52-49JHK70-4/2/9f6afbf5a455536eb790bd8920251a4f %V 19 %X In 1994 one of the most radical institutional restructurings in the USAs government provision of critical weather information took place after eight previously unsuccessful attempts. The President merged weather data collection by satellites operated by the Department of Defense and satellites operated by the Department of Commerce. Reorganization involving agencies with different objectives, economic constraints, and operating cultures is rare. This paper reviews the decision leading to convergence, discusses economic arguments, and addresses the problems confronting the new organization. The paper also discusses the implications of the new organization for incentives to engage in space RD and the increasingly large role played by these satellites in collecting not only weather but also climate-related data. %Z Quantitative %9 Journal article %@ 0265-9646 %0 Thesis %B Faculty of Science and Informatics, Institut for Geoinformation %D 2002 %T An Agent-Based Model for Quantifying the Economic Value of Geographic Information %A Krek, Alenka %C Vienna %I Technical University Vienna %P 150 %U http://www.geoinfo.tuwien.ac.at/publications/index.php?Theses:Krek_Alenka %X The producer and the buyer of a geographic dataset have to establish a common understanding of the value of the dataset in order to assess the price for an exchange. Geographic data is not a standard economic good. The same dataset can be exchanged and used many times; its use by one user does not diminish the amount available for other users. The characteristics of a geographic dataset make applying competitive pricing policy difficult. The goal of this thesis is to construct a computational model for quantifying the value of geographic information. The economic value of geographic information derives from its use in a decision making process and is measured by the improvement of the process. The decision making process selected as a case study in this thesis is car navigation in a city. Driving consists of a set of decisions where to drive and geographic information about the street network affects the choice of the path for driving. The driver’s goal is to select the shortest path to the preferred destination in a city. The driver gets geographic information from a street network dataset. For the economic analysis, we treat a dataset as a composition of properties that are important for the use and we term them ‘qualities’. A quality is in this work defined as a quantifiable property of a dataset that can be identifiably and unambiguously linked to the decision making... %Z Quantitative %9 Dissertation %0 Report %D 2002 %T The Socio-Economic Value of Improved Weather and Climate Information %A Williamson, Ray %A Hertzfeld, Henry %A Cordes, Joseph %I Space Policy Institute %0 Report %D 2001 %T Inception Study to Support the Development of a Business Plan for the GALILEO Programme - Final Report %A PricewaterhouseCoopers %P 86 %U http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/energy_transport/galileo/doc/gal_exec_summ_final_report_v1_7.pdf %Z Qualitative %9 Report %0 Report %D 2001 %T Potential Economic Benefits of Coastal Ocean Observing Systems: The Gulf of Maine %A nn %I National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Office of Naval Re- search, and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution %0 Manuscript %D 2000 %T Dividends from Investing in Ocean Observations: A European Perspective %A FLEMMING, Nicholas %U http://ioc.unesco.org/goos/Fleming_paper.pdf accessed Sep 2009. %X An ocean observing system to provide the data for climate research, modelling, and forecasting must be designed to high standards of accuracy and continuity. The observations are maintained for many years to develop the criteria for climate forecasting, and hence, in the meantime many of the data can and should be used for short and medium term purposes. When combined with other observations, usually of a local or regional nature, the combined data set provides the full suite of marine and coastal observations needed to serve a wide range of socio-economic and environmental objectives. The diagnostic and forecasting models on different scales are interfaced or nested to produce different analyses and products. The short and medium term systems provide an economic and social return which helps to cover the cost of the long term system. Although there are insufficient economic data to conduct a strictly controlled cost-benefit analysis at present, the effect of this strategy is, in economic terms, to ensure that the net discounted value of benefits minus costs never goes too heavily into deficit, and it may even be possible to maximise short and medium term returns so as to justify the whole system. In practice, expenditure and incomes for the various parts of the system to not occur in the same places, or agencies, and so a national or regional view is required, to maximise the net benefits in terms of public good. %0 Report %D 2000 %T The Economics of Sustained Ocean Observations: Benefits and Rationale for Public Funding %A nn %I National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Office of Naval Research %0 Journal Article %J Space Policy %D 1999 %T How valuable is remotely sensed information? The case of tropical deforestation modelling %A Bounfour, A %A Lambin, E F %P 149-158 %U http://www.scopus.com/scopus/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-0033174160partnerID=40 %V 15 %X An economic approach to remote-sensing applications needs to be developed to demonstrate the cost-advantage ratio of earth observation for decision makers. This article aims to conduct such an analysis of the information derived by remote sensing for a specific operational project, following some general chemical consideration about the economic value the economic value of information highlight that: of information. In our study of tropical deforestation modelling the main advantages of the remote-sensing-based information system came from: (i) an improvement of decision making as decisions could be made with a higher degree of confidence, leading to a shorter and less expensive decision cycle, and to earlier implementation of decisions; and (ii) avoidance of bad decisions, as the rate of project failure, and the associated resource wastes, was expected to decrease as a result of the availability of more accurate information. The costs of the model development and calibration and model implementation are also discussed. The economic approach is then generalised to three generic categories of remote-sensing projects (private, public with short-term implications and public with long-term implications). %Z Quantitative %9 Journal article %@ 02659646 %0 Journal Article %J Climate Change %D 1998 %T The Value of Improved ENSO Prediction to U.S. Agriculture %A Solow, Andrew %A Adams, Richard %A Bryant, Kelly %A Legler, David %A O’Brien, James %A McCaro, Bruce %A Nayd, William %A Weiher, Rodney %P pp. 47–60 %V 39 %0 Conference Proceedings %B Workshop on the Social and Economic Impacts of Weather April 2 - 4 1997 %D 1997 %T Some Dimensions of the Value of Weather Information: General Principles and a Taxonomy of Empirical Approaches %A , Molly Macauley %C Boulder, Colorado, USA %P 13 %U http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/socasp/weather1/macauley.html %Z Quantitative %9 Conference Proceedings %0 Journal Article %J Space Policy %D 1995 %T NASAs earth observations commercialization applications program A model for government promotion of commercial space opportunities %A Macauley, M K %P 53-65 %U http://www.scopus.com/scopus/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-0010591136partnerID=40 %V 11 %X The role of government in promoting space commerce is a topic of discussion in every spacefaring nation. This article describes a new approach to government intervention which, based on its five-year track record, appears to have met with success. The approach, developed in NASAs Earth Observations Commercialization Application Program (EOCAP), offers several lessons for effective government sponsorship of commercial space development in general and of commercial remote sensing in particular. %Z Qualitative %9 Journal article %@ 02659646 %0 Journal Article %J Contemporary Economic Policy %D 1995 %T VALUE OF IMPROVED LONG-RANGE WEATHER INFORMATION %A Richard M. Adams, Kelly Bryant Bruce Mccarl David Legler James OBrien Andrew Solow Rodney Weiher %P 10-19 %U http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7287.1995.tb00720.x %V 13 %X An important human welfare implication of climate involves effects of interannual variation in temperature and precipitation on agriculture. Year-to-year variations in U.S. climate result from El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a quasi-periodic redistribution of heat and momentum in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The study described here represents a preliminary assessment of the value to the entire U.S. agricultural sector of improved ENSO forecasts in the southeastern United States. This interdisciplinary assessment combines data and models from meteorology, plant sciences, and economics under a value of information framework based on Bayesian decision theory. An economic model of the U.S. agricultural sector uses changes in yields for various ENSO phases to translate physical (yield) effects of ENSO changes into economic effects on producers and on domestic and foreign consumers. The value of perfect information to agriculture is approximately $145 million. The economic value of an imperfect forecast is $96 million. These results suggest that increases in forecast accuracy have substantial economic value to agriculture. %Z Quantitative %9 Journal article %@ 1465-7287