Quantifying deforestation and secondary forest determinants for different spatial extents in an Amazonian colonization frontier (Rondonia)

Spatial patterns of deforested areas and secondary forest are analyzed in terms of the
spatial variation in location factors at different spatial extents. The spatial extents
considered are old and new agrarian colonization projects and the administrative units of
two different municipalities in Rondonia: Vale do Anari and Machadinho d’Oeste. A grid
database was constructed including land cover and potential location factors based on
biophysical, accessibility, socioeconomic and policy data. Results of the spatial analyses
confirmed the hypothesis that different extents yield different relationships between land
use/cover patterns and their location factors, particularly between old and new agrarian
colonization projects. It emphasizes that current patterns of forest, secondary forest and
pasture/agriculture can only be understood with a combination of policy, accessibility,
biophysical and socioeconomic factors while accounting for the historical pathways of
change. Because we are dealing with different trajectories of land use/cover change, static
analysis of the spatial pattern without acknowledging these trajectories will lead to
erroneous interpretations of the current and future land use/cover dynamics.