Collaborating GEO-BENE partners: KTL, Finland (leader)
Background
The seasonality and the effect of the daily weather on AMI case fatality, i.e. the probability of dying for a patient, has not been well researched. Better understanding of underlying risk factors may lead to better allocation of hospital resources thus saving human lives.
Data
Geo-referenced first AMI case-fatality and population data for subjects aged 25-74, for the years 1983, 1988, and 1993, and the daily weather data.
Methods
Statistical modelling: Binomial regression with weather effects and seasonal variation included cross-validation checks performed for the forecast potential.
Results
Preliminary results suggest seasonality in case-fatality. The observed seasonal pattern does not differ significantly by age and/or sex.
Status
The analysis is at its final stage. The manuscript is in preparation to be submitted to an epidemiology journal by the end of February 2008